For the third straight provincial election, Jill Dunlop topped the polls in Simcoe North.
But after a third-place finish in the riding in 2022, the Liberals made some strides this time around, as first-time candidate Walter Alvarez-Bardales finished second, albeit more than 10,000 votes behind the victorious Conservative candidate.
With 85 per cent of the votes counted, Dunlop led with 24,500 votes, compared to Alvarez-Bardales’ 12,900. New Democratic Party candidate Malcolm trailed in a distant third with 4,700 votes.
Alvarez-Bardales, a 52-year-old native of Guatemala now residing in Scarborough, was unavailable for comment on election night. However, his campaign manager, Ryan Barber, shared the campaign’s reaction to the results.
Barber acknowledged a sense of mixed emotions among the Liberal camp in Simcoe North.
“Obviously, we were hoping for better,” he said. “We’re really happy with the number of votes. We’ve greatly increased the Liberal vote across Ontario and are showing fairly strong in Simcoe North.”
Despite the increase in Liberal support, Barber expressed disappointment the surge in votes did not translate into more seats for the party. He attributed this, in part, to the unexpected timing of the election and the impact of winter weather.
“It was really challenging to get out and reach people due to the winter weather,” Barber noted, adding the cold conditions limited campaign outreach.
Barber suggested the Conservatives’ strategic preparedness played a significant role in Dunlop’s victory.
“Jill Dunlop’s team had apparently already secured advertising well in advance because they knew the election was coming. We didn’t,” he explained.
Barber was critical of Premier Doug Ford’s decision to call an early election, suggesting it provided an advantage to the Conservatives.
“One of the reasons why in Ontario we moved to fixed election dates was so that there would be an even playing field,” Barber said, referencing Ford’s use of tariffs as a justification for the election call.
Alvarez-Bardales’ residency outside the riding was a "talking point" during the campaign. Though he lives in Scarborough, Barber maintained it did not significantly impact voter support in Simcoe North.
“He came up regularly to campaign," he said. "He was out at Tim Hortons, shaking people’s hands. It was really great."
Nevertheless, the Liberal campaign faced logistical challenges. An early election call disrupted the party’s initial plans, including a change in candidates.
“We did have someone else originally lined up to be the candidate, but the early election call prevented them from running for us,” Barber revealed.
Reflecting on the campaign, Barber emphasized the need for better preparation. He indicated the Liberal team would be more proactive in future elections to avoid being caught off guard.
Despite the loss, Barber expressed optimism about the party’s future in Simcoe North, highlighting the campaign’s positive engagement with voters.
“If we work hard over the next couple of years to continue reaching out to people, we can see our support grow even further,” he concluded.
When asked if Alvarez-Bardales would consider running again, Barber remained noncommittal.
“Walter really enjoyed campaigning in Simcoe North… He would like to keep involved and would consider running here again," he said. "But it looks like we’ll at least have a couple of years to decide that in between.”