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'Snowball effect': Orillia inching toward snowfall record for January

'You usually see big lake-effect events like that every two or three years. We’ve seen it five or six times already this year,' says David Brain
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Local amateur weather watcher David Brain says Orillia is nearing record snowfall amounts this month.

With 160.4 centimetres of snow recorded so far this January, Orillia is just 4.6 centimetres away from breaking its all-time snowfall record for the month, set in 1997. That year, 164.9 centimetres fell, marking the snowiest January since local statistics began being recorded in 1871.

Local amateur weather watcher David Brain says this year’s snowfall is nearly double the normal January average.

The record could fall in the coming days, as Brain predicts five to 15 centimetres of snow could fall this evening. However, he cautions that snowfall amounts will depend on the precise location of the squall bands. Any accumulation before 7 a.m. on Saturday will count toward January’s total.

Brain also warns that Orillia is likely to see another snow-filled month ahead. A polar vortex from the north and Alberta clippers from the northwest are expected to bring more storms, he warned.

“We keep getting these systems that pick up moisture off of Georgian Bay,” Brain explained. "In the last 24 hours alone, Orillia has seen 15.6 centimetres of snowfall."

A major factor in this year’s "extreme lake-effect snow" is the lack of ice cover on Georgian Bay.

“Last year was the warmest on record worldwide,” Brain said. “The water absorbed that heat, and it’s taking a lot longer to cool down.”

The local area has already experienced multiple extreme snow events this winter, with five or six storms dumping 30 to 60 centimetres of snow at a time, explained Brain, who has been keeping track of weather locally for more than three decades.

“You usually see big lake-effect events like that every two or three years,” Brain noted. “We’ve seen it five or six times already this year.”

Beyond heavy snowfall, Brain warns that freezing rain and wet snow could hit Orillia in the coming days.

“We’re getting a pattern shift where cold air is coming a little further eastward,” he explained. "This shift could bring storms from the western U.S. and Gulf of Mexico up into the Great Lakes region."

While last year’s snow had melted by the end of February, Brain is predicting a late winter for 2025.

“We are sitting with about 53 centimetres of snow on the ground,” he said.

So far, Orillia has recorded 287.4 centimetres of total snowfall this season, already exceeding the city’s annual average of 280 centimetres. And with February, March, and April typically bringing another 70 centimetres, winter is far from over, he says.

Brain also warns that flooding could become an issue in Muskoka if a rapid spring melt occurs.

“It all depends on if we get a slow melt,” he said. “If we get a lot more snow and rain, the snow holds all that water, and it could be an issue down the road.”

Despite potential future challenges, the snowfall has been a boost for local businesses.

“The snowmobile trails have been open since Christmas, and the guys have been out ice fishing,” Brain said. “It’s all been great for the businesses and restaurants. It’s been a snowball effect for the economy.”

For now, all eyes are on the skies as Orillia inches closer to breaking its 27-year-old snowfall record.



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