With tensions rising in Ottawa, the major political parties’ riding associations are beginning to prepare for an election here in Simcoe North – whether one takes place this fall or later in the year.
After the NDP “ripped up” its supply and confidence deal with the Liberal Party earlier this month, the Conservative Party announced plans to introduce a non-confidence vote in the current government next week.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s move ends a two-plus year relationship that saw the NDP support the Liberals in exchange for commitments on certain NDP priorities. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s non-confidence motion could, if passed, trigger a snap election sometime this fall – a year ahead of the scheduled election date next October.
With the vote set for next week, both the Bloc Quebecois and NDP have announced they will vote against the non-confidence motion, meaning the Liberals are likely to cling to power beyond the fall, but the NDP and Liberals have nonetheless started their search for candidates in Simcoe North, a riding currently held by incumbent Conservative MP Adam Chambers.
“Liberal nominations formally are just opening, so people can express interest and receive information if they're interested in running as a candidate,” said Ryan Barber, riding chair for the Liberals in Simcoe North.
“Unlike the Conservatives, we’re not in a rush to get to an election. We're governing, but we are taking steps to get ready for 2025.”
While Barber expects Simcoe North to have a Liberal candidate in the next few months, he’s confident Poilievre’s motion “was never going to pass” and said his party has been reaching out to others to keep things in motion on Parliament Hill.
“The Conservatives are in a race for some reason to get to an election. However, this parliament, believe it or not, is working,” Barber said. “We have been reaching out to the other parties and asking them on motions what it would take to get things passed.”
The process, he said, has led to a variety of national programs at different stages of implementation.
“The NDP, the Bloc, the Greens, they understand that they can approach us and make a deal, and the end result is we're in the process of implementing national dental care, national pharmacare, a national daycare program,” he said. “These are some really big things, and I don't think the other parties want to pull the plug before we get that stuff fully implemented.”
For the Conservatives, next week’s motion is being brought forward due to the simple fact they “have lost confidence in this government,” said Chambers.
“The reasons we have lost confidence are plentiful – and I hear them every day when I speak to residents in Simcoe North: a government that ignored warnings of inflation and insists on increasing the carbon tax each year (eventually to 61 cents a litre),” he said in a statement to OrilliaMatters.
“A government that is running massive deficits which also drive up costs for Canadians and make life more unaffordable,” Chambers said. “The government moved incredibly slow on housing, and they also fail to recognize their changes to bail laws have made it easier for criminals to reoffend in our community.”
This fall would also be an advantageous time for the Conservatives to trigger a snap election, with the Tories boasting a massive lead over their NDP and Liberal counterparts in opinion polls.
For Barber, the gulf at the polls isn’t due to his party’s failed marriage with the NDP, but because of rampant inflation that’s impacted Canada and the broader world as well.
With inflation steadying, and programs like the carbon tax rebate, national pharmacare and other plans in the works, Barber said he hopes to see the Liberals begin faring better in the polls as these programs are fully put in place.
“We're seeing inflation starting to go down now, and hopefully we're in a better place come a year,” he said. “The NDP, they ripped up the confidence agreement right ahead of two by-elections that they were hoping to win both seats. I think that that was more to do with political posturing than them having an issue with the agreement.”
Chambers, however, would like to see Canadians given the chance to vote, and he said he has learned “you have to be ready for anything” during his time representing Simcoe North in Ottawa.
“An election will give Canadians a vote on choosing a path forward for their country,” he said. “Of course, it is possible that one or both of the Bloc or NDP will continue to support the government, but people tell me that a lot of things need fixing; we need to lower taxes, build more homes, reduce spending and waste and tighten our laws so communities can feel safe again.”
The NDP’s Simcoe North riding president, Eddie Ste. Marie, confirmed the NDP is searching for a new candidate for the area, but did not comment further on expected timelines or the party’s decision to cancel the supply and confidence agreement.
Elizabeth Van Houtte, who has ran under the NDP banner several times, told OrilliaMatters she is not running in the next federal election. Janet-Lynne Durnford, who ran under the NDP banner in the last federal election, is currently a city councillor.
In the 2021 federal election, Chambers won Simcoe North with 27,383 votes or 43 per cent of the ballots cast. Liberal Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux finished second with 19,332 votes, while Durnford and the NDP finished third after garnering 9,958 votes.
Stephen Makk of the Peoples Party of Canada was fourth with 4,822 votes, Green Party candidate Krystal Brooks was next with 1,903 ballots in her favour, while Christian Heritage Party candidate Russ Emo garnered 201 votes.
